Alternative investing? (HedgeFund)
Are alternatives really alternatives? Most investors’ portfolios are basically
funds of funds so the main decision is WHO chooses the managers. You or
someone you or your firm appoints. Replacing long only with long short doesn’t
help unless skill is evident. People with rare talent go where incentives are
highest. Why risk YOUR money on “low cost” index lemmings? The best don’t
compete on fees.
Forecasting alpha and identifying good funds is complex but not impossible.
After intensive due diligence, predictive financial analytics and non-linear
multifactor modeling I’ve found the key drivers for FUTURE superior
performance are innovation, hard work, great teams, aligned interests and
exclusive focus. Amazing how many “famous” long only funds don’t meet those
criteria.
Value added alpha comes from selecting the right securities or the right
managers. It’s a similar process. I look for new ideas and asymmetric payoffs.
But conventional “wisdom” favors old cheap products with low returns at high
risk and minimum margin of safety. Despite investors needing consistent
performance, passive pushers resist innovation and even dispute after fee
alpha exists! Manager evolvability is a selectable trait.
I wouldn’t mind were it not for the disastrous effect such high risk financial
“advice” has …
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